Quick Simulations that Mimic 2024 Clark County Early Voting

Hi Lilli, hope this helps with what I was saying, and what I feel Mark Lindeman was talking about.

The two simulations attempt to show that similar outputs of an election (focus on the scatter plot) can be achieved by either a hack or a different, more nuanced voter distribution. Since an election is a black box, without audits (ballots, software) or additional data (demographics, polling data), additional data is needed to determine statistical likelihood of the explanations.

Russian Tail: False Positive / False Negative

By accident, these two examples also show what I was talking about with Russian tail being a potentially ineffective classifier. In the non-hack version there appears a distinct Russian tail, whereas with the hacked simulation, the top chart appears to fit a bell curve.

Non-Normal Voter Distribution (no hack)

Uses two distinct hypothetical voting districts with different turn-out, ballots per tabulator, and blue/red choice.

Normal Voter Distribution with Power Function Hack

Uses a single hypothetical district modeled by a (naive) normal distribution of votes, with a power function vote swap hack.